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23-Jul-2017 18:51

This realization, in turn, leads us to Core tenet 3: We can use the concept of probability to measure our subjective belief in something.

Furthermore, we can apply the mathematical laws regarding probability to choosing between different beliefs. The fact that anything can be caused by an infinite amount of things explains why Bayesians are so strict about the theories they'll endorse.

(For a thorough mathematical treatment of Bayes' theorem, see Eliezer's Intuitive Explanation.)There should be nothing surprising about that, of course.

Suppose you're outside, and you see a person running.

For any given observation, how you should interpret it depends on previous information.

Simply seeing that the person was running wasn't enough to tell you that they were in a hurry, or that they were getting some exercise.

This article is an attempt to summarize basic material, and thus probably won't have anything new for the hard core posting crowd.

It'd be interesting to know whether you think there's anything essential I missed, though.

If you thought a cold was more likely, well, that was the answer I was after.Others considered their prior for "the government is ready to conduct massively risky operations that kill thousands of its own citizens as a publicity stunt", judged that to be overwhelmingly unlikely, and thought it far more probable that something else caused the suspicious things. But there are many well-known instances in which people forget to apply this information.